Friday, December 28, 2012

UCLA 26 - 49 Baylor (Final)

Nothing of interest happened in the second half, as the game was basically over at the break.  For that matter, the game appeared to be over at the kickoff, because UCLA seemed to have no interest in this game.  The Bruins' all-time record in UCFC competition falls to 37-21-7, and they still haven't won the title since 1993.

But let's give it up for Baylor!  The Bears were 4-5, and apparently going nowhere, when Kansas State came to Waco.  Baylor stunned Kansas State 52-24 to take the title, and have now defended the crown three times, beating Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and UCLA.  They finish the season 8-5, and get to take the Holiday Bowl trophy home with them.  They are also now 18-18-3 in UCFC competition.

We hope you've enjoyed another season of UCFC battles.  I certainly didn't think West Virginia and Baylor would hold the crown for most of the year, but that just shows that you should expect the unexpected.  Next season, the Baylor Bears -- our defending champion -- will open the season at home on September 7, 2013, when they will take on the University of Buffalo Bulls.  We plan to be there.

Thursday, December 27, 2012

UCLA 10 - 35 Baylor (Halftime)

UCLA gets a last-second field goal from Ka'imi Fairbairn of Punahou H.S. in Honolulu, Hawaii (the President's alma mater!).  But this ends what has to be one of the most embarrassing halves of football UCLA has ever played in a bowl game.  This is the first time UCLA has ever played Baylor in football.  From what I've seen so far, the Bruins won't want to play Baylor again anytime soon.

UCLA 7 - 35 Baylor (1:58 left in 2d Quarter)

Well, it would appear that this page will be green and gold for a long time.  Baylor holds again.  Baylor  gets the ball close to mid-field.  Soon afterward, Lache Seastrunk of Temple H.S. in Temple, Tex. dashed 45 yards for Baylor's fifth touchdown of the half.

UCLA 7 - 28 Baylor (4:36 left in 2d Quarter)

Never mind.  Baylor takes the ball and goes straight down the field for another touchdown -- this one on a 26-yard run by Glasco Martin.  This game is actually not as close as the score would indicate.

UCLA 7 - 21 Baylor (6:21 left in 2d Quarter)

A huge sequence right there.  Baylor's defense had stopped UCLA again, and the Bears took over at their own 8 with a chance to really put the game away.  But they ended up fumbling the ball, and UCLA took over at the Baylor 21.  Two plays later, Brett Hundley of Chandler H.S. in Chandler, Ariz. threw a 22-yard touchdown pass to Joseph Fauria of Notre Dame H.S. in Encino, Calif.  Suddenly, after looking absolutely hapless since the opening kickoff, the Bruins are back in the game.

UCLA 0 - 21 Baylor (11:08 left in 2d Quarter)

UCLA apparently never got over the disappointment of losing the Pac-12 championship, because they are simply not competitive in this game.  They haven't come very close to scoring, and they just gave up a 55-yard pass from Nick Florence to Tevin Reese of Temple H.S. in Temple, Tex.

I'm not surprised that Baylor is scoring so much -- that's what they do.  But I am surprised that UCLA has done so little on offense.

UCLA 0 - 14 Baylor (4:22 left in 1st Quarter)

Now Baylor is looking extremely comfortable.  They hold UCLA again, take over at their own 15, and go 85 yards with almost no difficulty.  The touchdown came on an 8-yard pass from Nick Florence of South Garland H.S. in Garland, Tex. to Antwan Goodley of Midland H.S. in Midland, Tex.  So far UCLA looks totally overmatched in this game.

UCLA 0 - 7 Baylor (8:01 left in 1st Quarter)

Well, this looks more like the Baylor we're used to seeing.  The Bears held UCLA, took over at midfield, and drove straight down the field for a touchdown.  Glasco Martin, of Stony Point H.S. in Round Rock, Tex., dashed in from four yards out for the score.

UCLA 0 - 0 Baylor (10:59 left in 1st Quarter)

Baylor took the opening kickoff and did not score.  That's a bad sign for the Bears.

UCLA 0 - 0 Baylor (15 minutes left in 1st Quarter)

And the final UCFC game of the year is under way!

Holiday Bowl: UCLA v. Baylor

Usually, by the end of the season, the team holding the UCFC is a conference champion.  In fact, the UCFC holder often plays for the national title.  But this year, Baylor had a record of 4-5 when it took the crown thanks to a stunning upset over Kansas State on November 17.  The Bears held on with hard-fought wins over Texas Tech (52-45) and Oklahoma State (41-34), meaning that they get to take the Big Gold Trophy out to San Diego for a Holiday Bowl match-up with UCLA.  As a result, 2013 will be the first year since 1996 with no UCFC game in January.

I have no idea who will win tonight.  Baylor lost five out of six games from late September to early November, but then won three in a row to finish off its season with a record of 7-5.  To some extent, the Bears simply had their luck even out -- a lot of their early losses could have been wins, and their last two wins could have been losses.  But their offense has been red-hot down the stretch, and they will expect to put a lot of points on the board.  As for UCLA, they are also hard to read.  First-year coach Jim Mora seemed to have things well in hand through 11 games -- the Bruins had a record of 9-2 and they beat USC 38-28.  But their season ended with back-to-back losses to Stanford (in the last game of the regular season and in the Pac-12 Championship).  On the other hand, the Holiday Bowl is right down the road from UCLA in San Diego, so the Bruins should have a good rooting section at tonight's game.

Putting it all together, Vegas has made UCLA a three-point favorite in a game where the over-under line is 82.  That would work out to something like a 42-39 Bruins victory, and that score does sound like the typical game we've seen from Baylor this year.

UCLA

On May 23, 1919 -- after years of fighting to overcome opposition from Northern California -- the people of Los Angeles were awarded a second campus in the University of California system, the first after Cal-Berkeley.  That fall, the University of California at Los Angeles played its first football season.  This makes the Bruins relatively young as college football programs go, but they have had a great amount of success in their history.  Their all-time record is 557-390-37, and they finished in the AP top 5 in 1946, 1953, 1954, 1955, 1965, 1966, 1975, 1982, and 1997.  Ever since the advent of color television, UCLA's powder-blue uniforms have been a glory of the sport.  Plus it is the alma mater of Jackie Robinson, who led UCLA in rushing as a senior before concentrating on baseball.  On the whole, it is a great and proud legacy.

UCLA has also played a huge role in the UCFC.  On September 29, 1939, the Bruins beat TCU 6-2 to end the Lone Star State's dominance of the UCFC and take the title to the Pacific Slope, where it stayed for the rest of the year.  Since then, the UCFC has spent a lot of time out on the Slope.  As a result, the Bruins have played in no less than 64 UCFC games.  The 1954 team, which came closer than any other UCLA team to winning the national title -- they finished 2d in the AP poll -- won the UCFC with a 41-0 victory over Oregon on November 6, and held it through the end of the season.  On January 1, 1976, the Bruins upset Ohio State 23-10 in the Rose Bowl, and held the title until they were beaten by USC on November 20th of that year.  On January 1, 1985, the Bruins won the title with a 39-37 victory over Miami of Florida in the Fiesta Bowl, and then kept the title for much of the 1985 season -- before losing again to USC at the end of the year.  UCLA last held the title in 1993, when they beat Washington on October 16 and defended the crown three times before losing to Arizona State 9-3.  Since then, they have had only three shots at the title, and lost all three.  Their last UCFC game was on December 3, 2005, when USC crushed them 66-19.  But now they will have another chance.

Saturday, December 8, 2012

Wrap Up: 2012 Week 14

Baylor defended the TUCFC in their final regular season game beating Oklahoma State 41-34. Now Baylor will go to the Holiday bowl where they will play UCLA. This could mean a move of the TUCFC into the Pac 12 and will be a bowl to watch.

The big story of course in college football is Northern Illinois. Their inclusion in a BCS bowl has created ripples throughout the bowls. The biggest loser may be Louisiana Tech who is not in a bowl. At one point they were ranked in the top 25 and finished the season with a 9-3 record. But they were holding out to see which bowls would be available to them and got left with no bowl invitation after the Northern Illinois selection created a ripple effect that pushed Louisiana Tech out of two of the bowls they were targeting and the one where they had a standing offer closed as the bowl made their decision while Louisiana Tech was asking for more time. It is crazy to think that they got left out of the bowls.

As expected Notre Dame will face Alabama in the BCS championship game. To me the biggest loser here at the end of the season is Stanford. They played Notre Dame very close during the season and then had a bad loss to Washington. After that they started a new quarterback and have been a much better offensive team since.  They went to Oregon and beat them, then capped it off by winning the Pac 12. Still in the BCS rankings they are only ranked 6th, mostly because of bad rankings from the human voters. I don't understand why as a human voter you would rank Oregon ahead of Stanford when they beat them at Oregon.

Normally at this time of year I begin my 32 team NCAA football tournament, but I'm not going to this year. I'm beginning to believe that we will eventually work our way into a 16 team tournament. Though a 32 team tournament would come closer to matching the number of bowl games, it would require teams to only play a 10 game regular season and I don't think that will happen. A 16 team tournament would fit with an 11 game regular season and I do believe that is possible. That would mean the most games any team would play would be 15 a number we will be at next year when they begin the four team tournament.

So what would a 16 team tournament look like. Well it would look something like this based on the BCS final standings.

Group A
1. Notre Dame vs. 4. Nebraska
2. LSU vs. 3. Oklahoma

Group B
1. Oregon vs. 4. Clemson
2. Kansas State vs. 3. South Carolina

Group C
1. Alabama vs. 4. Northern Illinois
2. Georgia vs. 3. Florida State

Group D
1. Florida vs. 4. Oregon State
2. Stanford vs. 3. Texas A&M



TUCFC Power Ratings
Since it's the end of the regular season I give you the top 20.  Stanford made the biggest move up with their win over UCLA to take the Pac 12 title.  Truth is I actually think that Stanford is the best team in the country and as I said earlier, feel they got a bad wrap here at the end of the season.

RankTeamRecordWPWDiffPLPLDiffPPower
1Notre Dame12-01,652.2191,187.1630.0000.0002,839.381
2Stanford11-21,787.2501,202.32594.250251.3132,644.012
3Oregon11-11,328.5941,125.58818.40653.3132,382.463
4Florida11-11,340.9061,072.4259.18839.1252,365.019
5Alabama12-11,198.8131,124.8009.96921.1882,292.456
6Kansas State11-11,340.8441,119.51391.469286.5632,082.325
7Ohio State12-01,179.438852.1500.0000.0002,031.588
8Oklahoma10-21,107.813931.83829.90699.5631,910.181
9Louisiana State10-2986.750808.87512.96934.3131,748.344
10Georgia11-2907.438872.85015.71970.4381,694.131
11Texas A&M10-2856.844858.62514.90635.3131,665.250
12South Carolina10-2874.438785.40013.90662.3131,583.619
13Nebraska10-31,100.563794.125134.594332.2501,427.844
14Oregon State9-31,003.250789.238120.000337.0631,335.425
15Clemson10-2703.469648.10042.156123.9381,185.475
16Florida State11-2770.094803.838117.906278.6881,177.338
17Michigan8-4595.594533.20045.063146.500937.231
18UCLA9-4965.719728.075204.375567.875921.544
19San Jose State10-2519.594546.27553.750117.313894.806
20Northern Illinois12-1552.844613.325149.781319.063697.325

Saturday, December 1, 2012

Baylor 41 - 34 Oklahoma St. (Final)

But the Bears smother the onside kick -- and hold onto the ball, despite a desperate effort from OK State.  They run out the clock and KEEP THE UCFC FOR THE THIRD WEEK IN A ROW.  It's their second upset win in three weeks.  Their all-time record in UCFC play is now 17-18-3.  We will now wait to see which bowl will invite the Bears, and who their opponent will be in the final UCFC match-up of 2012.

Oklahoma State suffers its second UCFC loss of the year, and the Cowboys' all-time record in UCFC competition falls to 2-10.  They will hope that Baylor will bring the title back to the Big XII next year.

Baylor 41 - 34 Oklahoma St. (1:16 left in 4th Quarter)

Hold the phone.  OK State scores on an 18-yard pass from Clint Chelf to David Glidden of Mustang H.S. in Mustang, Okla.  The Cowboys will now have to go for the onside kick.

Baylor 41 - 27 Oklahoma St. (5:11 left in 4th Quarter)

Well, the OK-State defense couldn't hold.  Lache Seastrunk of Temple H.S. in Temple, Tex. bursts through the middle on Baylor's first play and goes 76 yards for a touchdown.  The run was the more impressive because Seastrunk appeared to pull a muscle with about 20 yards to go, and somehow managed to hang on and stagger into the end zone anyway.

So Baylor, which was 4-5 just a few weeks ago -- and facing a game against the number 2 team in the nation -- is going to finish with a 7-5 record and the UCFC.  That's pretty impressive.

Baylor 34 - 27 Oklahoma St. (5:30 left in 4th Quarter)

After trailing by double-digits for most of the day, OK State has just closed to within a touchdown on a four-yard run by J.W. Walsh.  The Cowboys have actually played good defense in the second half, and if they can hold Baylor, they will have a chance to tie.

Baylor 34 - 20 Oklahoma St. (5:30 left in 3d Quarter)

So far, this half has only seen a pair of field goals.  The folks who bet the over (88 points) are starting to get nervous.

Baylor 31 - 17 Oklahoma St. (Halftime)

Baylor ends the first half scoring with a 3-yard run by Nick Florence, and the Bears take a 14-point lead into the break.

Baylor 24 - 17 Oklahoma St. (6:50 left in 2d Quarter)

Baylor started on the usual drive, but lost the ball on a fumble at about the OSU 30.  The Cowboys, of course, then zipped right down for another score -- this one coming on a 15-yard pass from Clint Chelf of Enid H.S. in Enid, Okla. to Josh Stewart of Guyer H.S. in Denton, Tex.

Baylor 24 - 10 Oklahoma St. (11:23 left in 2d Quarter)

Back in the 1970's, they used to say that you should only tune in for the last three minutes of an NBA game, and I'm starting to think that's true for Big XII football as well.  OK State takes the kickoff, zips down the field, and scores on a 1-yard run by J.W. Walsh of Guyer H.S. in Denton, Tex.

Baylor 24 - 3 Oklahoma St. (14:31 left in 2d Quarter)

Baylor has really picked up where they left off last week.  They stop OK State again, take over at their own 25 -- and immediately score on a pass from Nick Florence of South Garland H.S. in Garland, Tex. to Tevin Reese of Temple H.S. in Temple, Tex.  Seventy-five yards in one play, and the Bears have a 21-point lead.

Baylor 17 - 3 Oklahoma St. (20 seconds left in 1st Quarter)

OSU couldn't score, and punted to the Baylor 3.  Of course, punting is usually a waste of time in Big XII football, and the Bears just drove 97 yards for another touchdown -- this one topped off by a short run by Glasco Martin of Stony Point H.S. in Round Rock, Tex.

Baylor 10 - 3 Oklahoma St. (7:50 left in 1st Quarter)

Give it up for Eddie Lackey of Vista Murrieta H.S. in Murrieta, Calif.  This Baylor linebacker appears to be the only guy in the Big XII who really plays defense.  Last week, he had three takeaways against Texas Tech.  Today, he intercepts a pass at the Baylor 26 and runs untouched into the end zone to put Baylor on top.  Those folks who took the over, and who were nervous about the field goals on the opening drives, will be happy with this development.

Baylor 3 - 3 Oklahoma St. (8:05 left in 1st Quarter)

Baylor kicker Aaron Jones of Crowley H.S. in Crowley, Tex. had a rough game last week, but today he boots a 39-yard field goal to bring the Bears into a tie.

Baylor 0 - 3 Oklahoma St. (9:08 left in 1st Quarter)

On SportsCenter, they said that the over-under line for this game -- 88 points -- was the highest for any college football game ever, and the scoring has already started.  OK State takes the opening kick, drives down the field, and Quinn Sharp of Summit H.S. in Mansfield, Tex. kicks a field goal to put the Pokes into the early lead.

Baylor v. Oklahoma St.

The last UCFC battle of the 2012 regular season features our current holders, the Baylor Bears, defending their title at home against the Oklahoma State Cowboys.  We saw the Cowboys a few weeks ago, when they were beaten by then-holders Kansas State.  With one week left in the season, here are the Big XII Standings:

Kansas St.  7-1, 10-1
Oklahoma  7-1, 9-2
Texas  5-3, 8-3
Oklahoma St.  5-3, 7-4
Texas Christian  4-4, 7-4
Texas Tech  4-5, 7-5
W. Virginia  3-5, 6-5
Baylor  3-5, 6-5
Iowa St  3-6, 6-6
Kansas  0-8, 1-10

So the winner of this game, whoever it is, will be defending the title in a non-BCS bowl.  Which bowl they will attend is still up for grabs.  Over on ESPN, they think Oklahoma State is going to the Alamo Bowl to play UCLA or Oregon State, while they think Baylor could be headed for the Pinstripe Bowl (to play Syracuse) or the Texas Bowl (to play Purdue).  It makes a huge difference, of course, because the bowl matchup will determine which conference has the chance to take the UCFC away from the Big XII.

But in the meantime, we're still waiting to see which team will defend the Big XII's honor.  Oklahoma State has had a good season, with the caveat -- usual in the Big XII these days -- that they play no defense.  They lost to Arizona 59-38, Texas 41-36, K-State 44-30, and Oklahoma 51-48 (in OT).  But they've won everything else, and they have scored a ton of points.  The Cowboys also lead the all-time series with Baylor 18-12, and they won the only UCFC meeting between the two:  a 34-6 victory on October 18, 2008.  (The Cowboys lost the title to Texas the next week, and they are 2-9 in UCFC games all-time).

Week after week, as Big XII games have looked more like video games than traditional football, Vegas has raised the over-under lines.  This week, Vegas expects Oklahoma State to win by 4 1/2 points in a game where the teams are expected to score 88 points.  That would work out to something like a 47-42 win for the Cowboys, and I have to admit that sounds like a Big XII score.

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Wrap Up: 2012 Week 13

Baylor managed to hold on to the TUCFC title this week with an exciting 52-45 win over Texas Tech in overtime. Baylor will close out their regular season next week against Oklahoma State.

The real story of the week was Notre Dame. If Notre Dame, Alabama, and Georgia all won, which they did, it would lock up the BCS finalists to Notre Dame and the winner of the SEC championship game between Alabama and Georgia. But critical here was Notre Dame, because if they lost it would have thrown the entire BCS picture into total chaos. As it is we will now get Notre Dame versus the SEC champ and that will make most everyone happy. Oregon didn't win the Pac 12 and Kansas State took a beating from a team that currently sits at 6-5 just barely bowl eligible. Stanford has two losses and Florida lost to Georgia. In the end it is all working out very neatly this year for the BCS.

This is the week for conference championship games and a few other stragglers. Personally I think these teams currently play too many regular season games, and if we are ever going to get to a 16 team playoff we'll need to get that worked out.

There is one question that needs to be thought about. If Ohio State were eligible would they be the school with first dibs to play Notre Dame in the BCS championship? I would have to say I believe they would be. The Big 10 was bad this year, but in the latest UCFC Power Ratings, Ohio State sits above Alabama and Georgia because they played a tougher schedule. Alabama has one impressive win over LSU, that's it. The only other top ten team they faced all year was Texas A&M and they lost that game at home. Just as the Big 10 was down so was the SEC. Arkansas, Auburn, and Tennessee all had very disappointing seasons, and one of the big improved teams Vanderbilt who went 5-3 in Conference lost to Northwestern of the Big 10.



Games to Watch

Northern Illinois (11-1) at Kent State (11-1)
     Just think if Kent State didn't have that one loss, against Kentucky, they may be in the conversation for a BCS bowl.  As it is they will be playing for the MAC crown.

Alabama (11-1) at Georgia (11-1)
     When Georgia took a beating from South Carolina who would have imagined they would have a chance to play for the a right to get into the BCS championship game.  Go DAWGS!!



TUCFC Power Ratings
I find it interesting how far Alabama has fallen back over these last few weeks, all due to the fact that they have played lousy teams.  I'm curious to see if the SEC champ can jump up to the number 2 spot, or if Stanford wins if they will take it. 

Rank Team Record WP WDiffP LP LDiffP Power
1 Notre Dame 12-0 1,454.188 1,087.100 0.000 0.000 2,541.288
2 Florida 11-1 1,292.625 1,044.638 5.500 35.000 2,296.763
3 Oregon 11-1 1,230.563 1,071.125 18.406 53.313 2,229.969
4 Stanford 10-2 1,479.875 1,027.250 92.219 251.250 2,163.656
5 Ohio State 12-0 1,059.688 798.163 0.000 0.000 1,857.850
6 Alabama 11-1 899.531 931.938 9.219 21.188 1,801.063
7 Louisiana State 10-2 948.250 788.450 10.750 32.500 1,693.450
8 Georgia 11-1 892.875 865.813 8.219 57.688 1,692.781
9 Kansas State 10-1 1,012.031 901.925 79.688 257.250 1,577.019
10 South Carolina 10-2 864.188 777.688 11.438 60.500 1,569.938








Saturday, November 24, 2012

Texas Tech 45 - 52 Baylor (end of OT)

On 4th and 5, Texas Tech tries a slant pass to Eric Ward, but he can't hang on!  The game is over!  Once again, I have underestimated the Baylor Bears, WHO HANG ON TO KEEP THE UCFC FOR A SECOND WEEK.  On the sidelines, Baylor Alum Robert Griffin III is going crazy.

The Bears run their record in UCFC games to 16-18-3.  Next week, in the last UCFC game of the regular season, they will defend their title at home against Oklahoma State.  It will be the Cowboys' second shot at the crown this year; we last saw them a few weeks ago, when K-State beat them 44-30.

Texas Tech loses a second UCFC game in less than a month; they lost the title to K-State on October 27.  Their all-time UCFC record is now 17-14, and they will hope that the winner of the Baylor/Oklahoma State game wins their bowl, and keeps the UCFC in the Big XII.

Texas Tech 45 - 52 Baylor (bottom of the 1st OT)

After two incomplete passes, Texas Tech faces a 3d and 20 from their own 35.  But then they hit a 15 yard pass.  So they have to make 5 yards on fourth down to stay alive.  They call timeout.

Texas Tech 45 - 52 Baylor (Bottom of the 1st OT)

A holding call on Texas Tech means that they'll have to start with a 1st and 20 on the Baylor 35.  This is a big break for the Bears.

Texas Tech 45 - 52 Baylor (middle of the 1st OT)

Texas Tech doesn't stay on defense very long.  After only a few plays, Glasco Martin blasts in from four yards out to give Baylor the lead.

Now we will see if Eddie Lackey can come up with another takeaway for Baylor.

Texas Tech 45 - 45 Baylor (top of the 1st OT)

Texas Tech wins the coin toss and elects to go on defense.

Texas Tech 45 - 45 Baylor (End of Regulation)

This whole game has been a battle between Texas Tech's turnovers and Baylor's dreadful kicking game.  The fourth quarter ends in a standoff, as Jones misses yet another field goal.

For the second time this year, Texas Tech will be seeking to win the UCFC in overtime.  Earlier this year, they beat TCU in overtime.  Can they do the same to Baylor?

Texas Tech 45 - 45 Baylor (2 seconds left in 4th Quarter)

Texas Tech's defense actually plays its best series of the fourth quarter, and the Bears' Aaron Jones -- who has already missed two field goals today -- will have to make one from 48 yards out for the win.  Texas Tech calls time.

Texas Tech 45 - 45 Baylor (1:40 left in 4th Quarter)

Another disaster for Texas Tech.  With first and 10 at his own 36, Seth Doege threw a pass that bounced off the helmet of an offensive lineman -- and straight into the arms of Eddie Lackey, who is apparently the only guy for Baylor who plays defense.  It was Lackey's third takeaway of the game, and it gave Baylor the ball at the Texas Tech 32.

Texas Tech 45 - 45 Baylor (2:48 left in 4th Quarter)

I've decided that the key to understanding the Big XII is that for some reason, the best athletes are all on the offensive side of the ball.  The quarterbacks are basically never under pressure, the running backs seem to be stronger than the linebackers, and the wide receivers are almost always faster and stronger than the defensive backs.  I have no idea why they choose to play this way, but that's how they roll.

Anyway, Baylor moved down the field with their usual alacrity, and soon had a 3d and goal at the 6.  Florence appeared to have Tevin Reese of Temple H.S. in Temple, Tex. in the end zone for a touchdown, but the pass was just a bit too high and it went through Reese's hands.  Baylor settled for a 22-yard field goal from Aaron Jones.  Now Texas Tech will have the chance to win in regulation.

Texas Tech 45 - 42 Baylor (6:19 left in 4th Quarter)

Baylor could have had a really good season if they could play defense at all.  Texas Tech again zips down the field, this time scoring on a 6-yard pass from Doege to Moore.  Once again, I really don't see why more teams in the Big XII don't go for onside kicks.

Texas Tech 38 - 42 Baylor (8:58 left in 4th Quarter)

After that stupid penalty, there was no way Texas Tech was going to keep Baylor out of the end zone. Just to make sure, the Red Raiders committed a pass interference to give Baylor a 1st and goal at the 3.  From there, Nick Florence hit Terrence Williams of W.T. White H.S. of Dallas in the back corner of the end zone for a touchdown.

I doubted Vegas when their odds showed Baylor winning this game by a score of 42-38.  But sure enough, here we are.  Of course, the game's not over yet.

Texas Tech 38 - 35 Baylor (10:57 left in 4th Quarter)

Faced with a 3d and 9 on the Texas Tech 3, Nick Florence was forced out of the pocket and was seeking to get out of bounds well short of the first down.  But that wasn't enough for Texas Tech's Pete Robinson of Longview H.S. in Longview, Tex. He had to grab Florence and throw him down with a horse collar tackle.  Whistle.  Flag.  Fifteen yards for Baylor.  First down at the Texas Tech 19.  Another dumb play by the Red Raiders.

Texas Tech 38 - 35 Baylor (12:24 left in 4th Quarter)

Texas Tech, apparently fuming with rage over their blown lead, stormed straight down the field, going 71 yards in only five plays.  The last play was a 15-yard pass from Doege to Darrin Moore, and it put Texas Tech back into the lead.

Texas Tech 31 - 35 Baylor (14:44 left in 4th Quarter)

Disaster for the Red Raiders.  After the usual good start to their offensive possession, they had a 3d and 3 at the Baylor 45.  At this point, Texas Tech QB Seth Doege lost his mind.  He scrambled around in the backfield for awhile like Fran Tarkenton, and then hurled a pass straight to Baylor's Eddie Lackey, who already has a fumble recovery today.  Lackey took the gift and rumbled 55 yards for a touchdown to give Baylor its first lead of the day.  It was Texas Tech's third turnover of the game, while Baylor has none, and it could end up being the difference-maker.

Texas Tech 31 - 28 Baylor (2:16 left in 3d Quarter)

But Nick Florence, the Baylor QB, is feeling it now.  He quickly zips the Bears back down the field, and  they score on a 32-yard pass from Florence to Lanear Sampson of North Mesquite H.S. in Mesquite, Tex.  (So the last two touchdowns were scored by players from Mesquite).  Texas Tech leads by 3, and the UCFC is very much up for grabs.

Texas Tech 31 - 21 Baylor (4:36 left in 3d Quarter)

So far, the Red Raiders have answered everything Baylor has thrown at them, and it didn't take long to answer that challenge.  The kickoff went to Jakeem Grant, a red-shirt freshman from Mesquite Horn H.S. in Mesquite, Tex., and he went 97 yards for a touchdown without a single Baylor Bear ever putting a glove on him.  It was Texas Tech's first kickoff return for a touchdown since 2002, and it has given Texas Tech a 10-point lead.

Texas Tech 24 - 21 Baylor (4:50 left in 3d Quarter)

After an exchange of punts, Baylor puts together another successful drive.  This one ends on a 4-yard touchdown run by Nick Florence, the Baylor QB.  Suddenly, the Bears are right back in this game.  Of course, given that Baylor already has a total of 466 yards, it's actually surprising they only have 21 points.  But they missed two field goals and were stopped at the Texas Tech 2 in the first half.

Texas Tech 24 - 14 Baylor (10:45 left in 3d Quarter)

Texas Tech takes the opening kickoff for the second half and, as usual, drives deep into Baylor territory.  Their drive stalls at the Baylor 12, however, and so Ryan Bustin of Kilgore H.S. in Kilgore, Tex. comes in and boots a 29-yard field goal to give the Red Raiders a 10-point lead.

Texas Tech 21 - 14 Baylor (Halftime)

Not surprisingly, Baylor didn't stay at its own 7 for long.  They zipped into Texas Tech territory with the usual speed, and with almost no time left in the half, they faced a 3d and 1 at the Texas Tech 39.  Somehow,  the Red Raiders utterly failed to cover Levi Norwood of Midway H.S. in Woodway, Tex, who was about 10 yards behind the nearest defender when he caught a touchdown pass from Nick Florence of South Garland H.S. in Garland, Tex.  Norwood strolled into the end zone untouched -- something that happens a lot in Big XII football -- and the Bears were within one touchdown as the teams went to the locker room.

Texas Tech 21 - 7 Baylor (1:33 left in 2d Quarter)

Texas Tech didn't stay at its own 5 for long; the Red Raiders swiftly moved deep into Baylor territory.  But with a chance to build a huge halftime lead, Seth Doege blew it.  On 3d and goal from the Baylor 8, Doege fumbled the ball, and it was scooped up by Eddie Lackey, a Baylor Bear from Vista Murrieta H.S. in Murrieta, Calif.  So each team is stopped deep inside the other team's red zone, and Baylor will start from its own 7.

Texas Tech 21 - 7 Baylor (6:04 left in 2d Quarter)

From its own 4, Baylor moved quickly down the field, and soon faced a 4th and 1 from the Texas Tech 2.  Once again, the Baylor coach decided to go for it on fourth down, and once again, Baylor handed the ball to Glasco Martin.  But this time Texas Tech was ready, and the Red Raiders smashed the play for a three-yard loss.  Texas Tech takes over at its own 5.

Texas Tech 21 - 7 Baylor (9:08 left in 2d Quarter)

The Red Raiders were on the move, but from the Baylor 41 Seth Doege's long pass was intercepted by Sam Holl of Katy H.S. in Katy, Tex.  Baylor takes over on its own 4.

Texas Tech 21 - 7 Baylor (11:18 left in 2d Quarter)

Baylor drives down to the Texas Tech 21, but the drive stalls and they are forced to try a field goal on 4th and 10.  Aaron Jones of Crowley H.S. in Crowley, Tex. hooks his kick to the left for his second miss of the day.  Texas Tech gets the ball and a chance to pad its lead.

Texas Tech 21 - 7 Baylor (14:17 left in 2d Quarter)

And two plays later, Doege hurls a 23-yard touchdown pass to Eric Ward of Rider H.S. in Wichita Falls, Tex.  The Red Raiders have quickly restored their two-touchdown lead.

Texas Tech 14 - 7 Baylor (end of 1st Quarter)

On the last play of the first quarter, Texas Tech QB Seth Doege throws a 46-yard pass to Darrin Moore of McArthur H.S. in Irving, Tex.  I'm not kidding when I tell you that the pass coverage in the typical flag football game is better than the pass coverage in the typical Big XII match-up.  I've been watching football for over 40 years, and I've never seen as many wide open receivers as I've seen in this year of blogging Big XII games.

Texas Tech 14 - 7 Baylor (12 seconds left in 1st Quarter)

Well, that didn't take long.  The Bears ran the kickoff out their own 47, and soon afterward hit a long pass to set up a first and goal at the two.  They were then stopped on three straight runs, leaving them with a fourth-and-goal at the one.  They called time.  Wisely realizing that field goals are of little value in Big XII football, they went for the touchdown on fourth down -- and got it, with Glasco Martin of Stony Point H.S. in Round Rock, Tex. plunging over for the score.

THE BIG XII, EVERYONE!!!

Texas Tech 14 - 0 Baylor (3:02 left in 1st Quarter)

Texas Tech marches straight down the field for an 80 yard drive, which is topped off with a five-yard touchdown run by Kenny Williams of Hendrickson H.S. in Pflugerville, Tex.  Coach Tommy Tuberville used to torment Alabama in the end-of-the-season showdown when he was at Auburn, and his Red Raiders look very sharp so far.

Texas Tech 7 - 0 Baylor (5:40 left in 1st Quarter)

Just got back from the barbershop to find that Texas Tech took the lead on a 19-yard run by their quarterback, Seth Doege of Frenship H.S. in Wolfforth, Tex., with 10:37 to go in the first quarter.  The Red Raiders then held, and now they have the ball again at their own 20.

Texas Tech v. Baylor (at Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, Tex.)

With Baylor's upset of Kansas State, we now know that the UCFC will be held by one of three teams going into the bowls.  This is Texas Tech's last game of the year, so if they win today, the Red Raiders (4-4, 7-4) will take the Big Gold Trophy to a bowl.  If Baylor (2-5, 5-5) wins, they will defend the title next week against Oklahoma St (5-2, 7-3).  So one of those three teams -- Texas Tech, Baylor, and Oklahoma State -- will be the UCFC Holder going into bowl season.  This seems appropriate, as the UCFC match-ups this year have largely consisted of games featuring mid-level Big XII competition.

This is one of the few traditional rivalry games we've had on the UCFC schedule this year.  Texas Tech and Baylor are old rivals going back to their days in the Southwest Conference.  In fact, this will be their 71st meeting -- the most games Texas Tech has played against anyone.  Texas Tech leads the all-time series 36-33-1.  This will be the fourth time the Bears and Red Raiders have played for the UCFC, and the Red Raiders have won all three prior match-ups.  On November 11, 1932, Texas Tech beat Baylor 14-2.  On November 17, 1933, Texas Tech beat Baylor 13-0.  On November 16, 1991, Texas Tech beat Baylor 31-24.

Since 2009, this game has been played either at Cowboys Stadium or the Cotton Bowl, and I can certainly see why the school from Waco and the school from Lubbock would want a chance to strut their stuff in the DFW metroplex.  They are also scheduled to play in Cowboys Stadium in 2013 and 2014.

The oddsmakers, who have made a few big mistakes in their efforts to analyze UCFC games this year, like Baylor to hold the title.  The Bears are 3 1/2 points favorites in a game where the over-under line is 80.  That would translate into something like a 42-38 win for Baylor.  Personally, I don't see Baylor running up and down the field on Texas Tech like they did last week against Kansas St.  The Red Raiders have struggled since losing the UCFC to K-State -- they lost 31-22 to Texas, beat Kansas 41-34 in double overtime, and were pasted by Oklahoma State 59-21.  But I have a feeling that they will circle the wagons in their last game of the year, and I think they're just better than Baylor.  The Red Raiders have lost to Kansas State, Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State -- the four best teams in the Big XII -- but they have beaten the lesser teams in conference, and I think that string will continue.

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Wrap Up: 2012 Week 12

Baylor took the UCFC title by knocking off Kansas State 52-24, and they also put a big wrench into the BCS race knocking Kansas State out of the running.  Next week Baylor will be hosting Texas Tech for the UCFC title.

Kansas State wasn't the only top tier team to lose in week 12 as Oregon also fell losing to Stanford  17-14.  If only one of these teams had loss the national championship picture would be very clear today, but with both teams losing the race for the top two spots is now wide open, even bringing Florida State back into the picture.  Let's take a look at the current BCS picture.


1. Notre Dame
2. Alabama
3. Georgia
4. Florida
5. Oregon
6. Kansas State
7. LSU
8. Stanford
9. Texas A&M
10. Florida State

Out of the BCS top ten, who really has a chance to take the top two spots?  Well if Notre Dame wins their final game they will finish as the number 1 team and be in.

Alabama will need to win out.  They play Auburn this week.  Assuming they win that then they will play Georgia in the SEC championship game.  Assuming they win out they will get the number 2 spot.

If Georgia beats Georgia Tech and Alabama they will take the number 2 spot.

If Georgia loses to Georgia Tech but beats Alabama and Florida beats Florida State, Florida may get the number 2 spot.

Oregon is in trouble.  As it stands right now they won't even have a shot at the Pac 12 championship game and that will hurt them.  They need Stanford to lose to UCLA this week, USC to beat Notre Dame, and some other things to happen to get back into the top two spots.  Though human voters love Oregon, the computers aren't all that crazy about them right now.

Stanford is loved by the computers but not by the humans.  They need to win out and take the Pac 12.  They also need a lot of other big losses by other teams to get the human voters to open up to them, but it is still possible for Stanford to make the top 2.

Florida State will have to beat Florida and then win the ACC title.  The humans have Florida State ranked 5th and 6th, it's the computers that hate them ranking them 17th.  They need to kill Florida and have a bunch of other people lose in order to close that gap.


Games to Watch this Week

Georgia Tech (6-5) at Georgia (10-1)
     Tech has had a weird year, but could play spoiler against their in-state rivals.

 Michigan (8-3) at Ohio State (11-0)
     Ohio State could end the season undefeated.

Miami (Florida) (6-5) at Duke (6-5)
     I have no idea the tie breaker for the ACC but I believe UNC is ineligible so if Miami wins this week they take the Coastal Division.

Oregon (10-1) at Oregon State (8-2)
      This should be a very good game.  The BCS computer models make this a number 7 versus number 12 matchup.

Florida (10-1) at Florida State (10-1)
     When was the last time this game held so much drama.  This is Florida's last game of the year and they need to beat down Florida State to leave a deep impression with the human voters.

Stanford (9-2) at UCLA (9-2)
     If Stanford wins they win the Pac12 North.  This is the game of the week I think.

South Carolina (9-2) at Clemston (10-1)
     If Clemson beats South Carolina and Florida State beats Florida that could greatly help Florida State in getting to the BCS championship game.

Notre Dame (11-0) at USC (7-4)
     If Notre Dame wins they are playing for a national championship and USC may be looking for a new coach.  If USC can pull off the win people all across the country will suddenly love Lane Kiffin.



TUCFC Power Ratings
Stanford makes a big jump from 10 to 3.  As you can see one of the reasons why Stanford is so loved by the computer models are their quality wins.  Their WP ranking is second best to Notre Dame with Florida sitting at number 3.  The computer models love that stuff.  It's the primary reason why Florida State gets rated so low, they have a WP of 538.969, that's almost 500 points lower than Florida.  A win over Florida will give them a huge boost.

RankTeamRecordWPWDiffPLPLDiffPPower
1Notre Dame11-0948.938810.5250.0000.0001,759.463
2Florida10-1834.406760.7385.50035.0001,554.644
3Stanford9-2904.406729.83829.813114.5631,489.869
4Oregon10-1695.406784.83712.43834.9381,432.869
5Alabama10-1682.063769.8759.21921.1881,421.531
6Ohio State11-0738.781635.9500.0000.0001,374.731
7Louisiana State9-2656.375628.42510.75032.5001,241.550
8Kansas State10-1705.656745.41360.844221.5631,168.663
9Georgia10-1569.531647.5378.21957.6881,151.163
10Texas A&M9-2530.563637.96312.43833.5001,122.588




   

Saturday, November 17, 2012

Baylor 52 - 24 Kansas St. (Final)

Remarkably, nothing much happened in the fourth quarter.  Neither team scored a point, and Baylor ran off with a remarkably easy 52-24 win.  I don't know how it's possible for the number 2 team in the country to lose at 4-5 Baylor by 28 points.  I thought Kansas State came out flat, and were never really able to get back into the game once they fell behind.  Even when they made big plays to get close, their defense let them down time after time.  Baylor ended up with 582 total yards, including 344 total rushing yards.  That's just totally unacceptable from a team battling for their conference title, let alone the national title.

So K-State's dream season is shattered.  The Wildcats can still win the Big XII, but they have lost the UCFC, and they have almost certainly blown their shot at the BCS title game.  As for Collin Klein, who threw 3 interceptions tonight, my guess is that he won't be winning the Heisman.  And Bill Snyder, the greatest coach Kansas State ever had, one of the best coaches in the last thirty years, will not get the National Title that would have cemented his reputation.  This afternoon, as they were getting ready for this game, I'm sure the Wildcats really thought they were going to win it all.  Instead, they have lost it all, and their record in UCFC play is now 3-7.

As for Baylor, they win the UCFC in shocking fashion, getting the title for the first time since they beat Arkansas 9-5 back on November 2, 1991.  They get only their second conference win of the year, they move their record to 5-5, and their all-time UCFC record is now 15-18-3.  This page will now be green and gold, and next week the Bears will defend their title at home against Texas Tech.  We'll be watching.

Baylor 52 - 24 Kansas St. (1:10 left in 3d Quarter)

OK, get ready to see this page in green and gold.  Lache Seastrunk, a transfer from Oregon who went to Temple H.S. in Temple, Tex., breaks into the secondary and goes 80 yards for what should be a game-clinching -- and UCFC-clinching -- touchdown for the Baylor Bears.  Again, just a horrific play by the K-State defense.

Baylor 45 - 24 Kansas St. (4:32 left in 3d Quarter)

It is impossible to overstate how terrible K-State's defense has been in this game.  Baylor goes 54 yards in only 4 plays -- the last of which was a 15-yd run for Glasco Martin's third touchdown of the game.  Kansas State is in huge trouble now.

Baylor 38 - 24 Kansas St. (7:58 left in 3d Quarter)

Baylor comes back down the field, but their drive stalls after a 3d and 19 pass where the fans in Waco -- and the Baylor coaching staff -- thought K-State had clearly committed pass interference.  Untroubled by this controversy, Aaron Jones of Crowley H.S. in Crowley, Tex. comes in an calmly boots a 50-yard field goal to put Baylor up by 14.

Baylor 35 - 24 Kansas St. (12:24 left in 2d Quarter)

On first and goal from the Baylor 1, Klein plunges over for a touchdown to bring K-State back to within 11 points.

What a huge turnaround.  Baylor had an 18 point lead, the ball, and all the momentum.  Now the Wildcats are back in business.

Meanwhile, Oregon has taken a 14-7 lead over Stanford midway through the third quarter.

Baylor 35 - 17 Kansas St. (12:30 left in 3d Quarter)

Unbelievable.  On 2d and 10 from its own 1, Baylor tried a wide-receiver screen, but the ball was intercepted by Randall Evans, a cornerback from Palmetto H.S. in Miami.  Evans caught the ball at the 1, but amazingly the Baylor wide receiver kept him from scoring.  Still, K-State can now get right back in this game.

Baylor 35 - 17 Kansas St. (12:52 left in 3d Quarter)

But K-State does nothing with their good field position, going three and out.  Ryan Doerr of Katy, Tex. (who transferred from South Carolina) gets off a perfect punt, which dies at the Baylor 1.  Still, the Bears could probably put this game away with one more touchdown.

Baylor 35 - 17 Kansas St. (13:11 left in 3d Quarter)

K-State's efforts to come back get off to a good start, as Tramaine Thompson of Jenks H.S. in Jenks, Okla. runs the kickoff out to the 50.

Baylor 35 - 17 Kansas St. (13:37 left in 3d Quarter)

The Bears quickly capitalize on their second interception -- blasting downfield to score on a quick drive.  The touchdown comes on a four-yard run by Glasco Martin -- his second TD of the game.

Now the Number 2 Wildcats trail by 18 points with only 28 and a half minutes to go.  They cannot afford any mistakes if they want to keep their wonder season alive.

Baylor 28 - 17 Kansas St. (14:07 left in 3d Quarter)

K-State had score touchdowns on 8 of their 10 possessions to open the second half this year, and they came out planning for another TD to open this half.  But on 3d and 10 from the K-State 40, Collin Klein threw his second interception of the game.  Sam Holl, from Katy, H.S. in Katy, Tex., gathered in the ball and ran it back to the K-State 41.  Now, can Baylor take advantage?

Baylor 28 - 17 Kansas St. (Halftime)

OK, so now K-State is playing for real.  After their touchdown cut Baylor's lead to 28-14, the Wildcat defense forced a three-and-out, and Baylor punted to the K-State 31.  Collin Klein then led K-State on a masterful drive, which ended only because the half was almost over.  But by that point K-State was on the Baylor 6, so Anthony Cantele of Kapaun Mt. Carmel Catholic H.S. in Wichita, Kan. kicked a 23-yard field goal to trim Baylor's lead to 11.

K-State gets the ball to start the second half, and Baylor better be ready, because an 11-point lead isn't much in the context of Big XII football.

Baylor 28 - 14 Kansas St. (1:47 left in 2d Quarter)

Well, that didn't take long.  K-State -- now thoroughly roused -- needs only four plays to score, topping off their TD drive with a 7-yard pass from Collin Klein to Chris Harper, who transferred to K-State from Oregon.  Harper played for Northwest H.S. in Wichita, Kan.

Meanwhile, the Oregon Ducks have scored, so their game with Stanford is tied 7-7 at the half.  Still, two of the three remaining undefeated teams are in big trouble, which will stir a great deal of interest in South Bend and Tuscaloosa.

Baylor 28 - 7 Kansas St. (2:54 left in 2d Quarter)

Suddenly the Baylor Bears are all over the nation's number-2 team.  After Baylor scored to go up 21-7, the K-State Wildcats went three-and-out.  Baylor took the punt and simply rammed the ball down K-State's throat, using a devastating running attack to set up another touchdown.  This time they scored on a 2-yard run by Glasco Martin of Stony Point H.S. in Round Rock, Tex.

K-State was pretty flat when this game started, but my guess is that Baylor has their attention now.  It will be interesting to see how the Wildcats respond.

Baylor 21 - 7 Kansas St. (6:47 left in 2d Quarter)

K-State was not psychologically ready to play this game, and now they are in some trouble.  Baylor puts together another touchdown drive, topping this one off with a 22-yard pass from Florence to Terrence Williams (of W.T. White H.S. in Dallas).  Williams missed a TD pass a few minutes ago, but he doesn't miss this one.

K-State better get going soon, or their dream season could be over.

Baylor 14 - 7 Kansas St. (12:19 left in 2d Quarter)

Baylor quickly moved to the K-State 41.  Terrence Williams was open for a long touchdown pass, but couldn't haul in the ball.  That was a serious mistake, because on the next play, Nick Florence tried another long bomb -- which was intercepted by Nigel Malone, a junior college transfer from Manteca, Calif.  So the Wildcats will now take over at their own 8.

I get the impression that K-State is flat, but so far Baylor hasn't built the big lead they would probably need to pull the upset.

Meanwhile, out in Eugene, Ore., the Stanford Cardinal have taken a 7-0 second-quarter lead over Oregon, the number-one team in the country.

Baylor 14 - 7 Kansas St. (14:21 left in 2d Quarter)

Baylor could not score, and they are forced to punt.  But just when K-State's offense was starting to roll, Heisman Trophy candidate Collin Klein throws a long pass that is intercepted by Joe Williams of Riverview Gardens H.S. in St. Louis.  Williams hauls in the ball at the Baylor 21, and the Bears have a rare turnover.  Klein had only thrown four interceptions all year.

By the way, one of the best things about spending a year watching Big XII football is that the radio announcers in Texas are excellent.  We've already complimented the TCU crew, but the Baylor announcers are really good.  I'm particularly impressed with their play-by-play guy, who is outstanding.

Baylor 14 - 7 Kansas St. (2:33 left in 1st Quarter)

Well, Baylor ignored my advice and they were smart to do so.  They kick it deep, and their defense prevented K-State from scoring.  The Wildcats punt into the Baylor end zone, and the Bears will take over at their own 20.  Can they take a two-score lead?

Baylor 14 - 7 Kansas (6:29 left in 1st Quarter)

After Baylor's kickoff return for a TD was swept off the board for holding, the Bears simply marched 75 yards down the field, topping off their drive with a 12-yard run by Nick Florence.  So far, we've had three possessions and three touchdowns.

I urge Baylor to try the onside kick again.  After all, they scored 63 points when they tried for the UCFC earlier this year against West Virginia -- but they gave up 70.  They should be doing everything they can to keep the ball.

Baylor 7 - 7 Kansas St. (9:47 left in 1st half)

Since no one in the Big XII can play defense, I've been urging the teams out there to try onside kicks.  Baylor took my advice, but they botched the onside kick, getting called for a penalty and letting K-State have the ball at the Baylor 38.  You will not be surprised to learn that K-State scored soon afterward, on an 8-yard pass from Collin Klein (of Loveland H.S. in Loveland, Colo.) to Torrell Miller, who attended the O. Perry Miller College and Career Preparatory High School and Community Center in New Orleans.

Baylor subsequently returned K-State's kickoff for a touchdown, but the return was called back due to a holding penalty.

Baylor 7 - 0 Kansas St. (12:32 left in 1st Quarter)

Baylor takes the opening kickoff, drives down the field, and scores on a 38-yard pass from Nick Florence of South Garland H.S. in Garland, Tex. to Tevin Reese of Temple H.S. in Temple, Tex.

For the record, Baylor is wearing special black jerseys for tonight's game, instead of their traditional green.  K-State is going with their usual white jersey with purple numerals.

Baylor v. Kansas St.

It's hard to believe, but the 2012 college football season is almost over.  Lots of year-end rivalry games being played today -- games like Harvard v. Yale, USC v. UCLA, Vanderbilt v. Tennessee, and William & Mary v. Richmond.

Kansas State was so bad for so long that they never really developed a strong end-of-the-season tradition.  For years, the biggest college football game in Kansas was the KU/Mizzou game -- and that game isn't even played anymore.  But this year, the eyes of the nation will be very much focused on K-State, because the Wildcats are currently ranked # 2 in the nation in the AP poll, and they are currently on track for an appearance in the BCS title game.  They are also on pace for a Big XII championship.  Baylor, on the other hand, is suffering through a disappointing season as they really miss RG III.  Here are the current Big XII standings:

Kansas St.:  7-0, 10-0
Oklahoma:  5-1, 7-2
Texas:  5-2, 8-2
Oklahoma St:  4-2, 7-2
Texas Tech:  4-3, 7-3
Texas Christian:  3-4, 6-4
W. Virginia:  2-4, 5-4
Iowa St:  2-5, 5-5
Baylor:  1-5, 4-5
Kansas:  0-7, 1-9

(By the way, notice that our old friends from WVU have lost every game they've played since they lost the UCFC a few weeks ago.)

For most of their history, of course, Kansas State and Baylor were in separate conferences, with the Wildcats in the Big 8 and Baylor in the Southwest Conference.  So this will only be the 10th meeting between the two schools.  K-State leads the all-time series 7-2.

This is a prime-time game on ESPN, and I have no doubt the folks in Waco will come out in big numbers to see if their guys can upset the Wildcats.  But K-State has been pretty solid all year.  According to Vegas, the Wildcats are favored by 12 1/2 points, and the over-under is 74.  That points to a typical Big XII shootout, with the Wildcats winning 43-31.  That sounds about right to me.

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Wrap Up: 2012 Week 11

Sure Kansas State defended the UCFC with a solid 23-10 win over Texas Christian, but this past weekend was all about the defeat of Alabama.

I sat down Saturday to watch Alabama for the first time this season. I was a bit surprised when Texas A&M marched right down the field for a score. I mean after all I had heard their defense was good enough to compete with pro teams. Once the score got to be 20-0 I began to wonder if Alabama was even going to make a showing. They did, but it was too little too late. A&M always had an answer and never let up.

I had assumed when the day started that my big write up would be about Syracuse knocking off Louisville, I was stunned that instead the big takeaway is that Alabama is no longer undefeated and as of right now the SEC will not have a shot at the national title.

This narrows down the BCS title game to just three teams: Notre Dame, Oregon, and Kansas State. Oregon has the biggest test this week hosting Stanford, so that will be the big game to watch.


Games to Watch This Week

Toledo (8-2) at Northern Illinois (9-1)
     This will likely determine the winner of the MAC West Division, and kicks off Wednesday night at 9:00PM ET.

Central Florida (8-2) at Tulsa (8-2)
     This will more than likely be a preview of the Conference USA championship game.

Kent State (9-1) at Bowling Green State (7-3)
     This will likely determine the winner of the MAC East Division.

USC (7-3) at UCLA (8-2)
     This will set the winner of the PAC 12 South Division.

Utah State (8-2) at Louisiana Tech (9-1)
     The winner of this game will likely be the last WAC champion.

Stanford (8-2) at Oregon (10-0)
     Stanford will try and slow this game down and keep the score low.  It will be a good test for Oregon's offense and will mean a lot to the computer models.


TUCFC Power Ratings
The big surprise here is Florida, but of course they beat Texas A&M.  Oddly the win over Alabama didn't do a whole lot for A&M.  Stanford replaces Clemson in the 10th spot.  The SEC teams are all playing lower division schools this week, so they should take a bit of fall in the computer rankings next week.

RankTeamRecordWPWDiffPLPLDiffPPower
1Oregon10-0557.313702.4370.0000.0001,259.750
2Florida9-1665.406633.7885.50035.0001,258.694
3Notre Dame10-0629.625595.8870.0000.0001,225.513
4Kansas State10-0523.500643.1000.0000.0001,166.600
5Alabama9-1534.125636.2759.21921.1881,139.994
6Ohio State10-0495.719491.8870.0000.000987.606
7Louisiana State8-2503.688512.76310.75032.500973.200
8Texas A&M8-2435.750556.20012.43833.500946.013
9Georgia9-1462.625546.1508.21957.688942.869
10Stanford8-2533.469486.78723.781109.500886.975

Sunday, November 11, 2012

Texas Christian 10 - 23 Kansas St. (Final)

This turned out to be a pretty easy game for the Wildcats -- and, for once, the final score was lower than the Vegas over/under line predicted.  In fact, this was the lowest-scoring UCFC game since October 1, 2011, when Clemson beat Virginia Tech 23-3.

TCU loses their second UCFC game of the year, with both losses coming at home.  They fall to 30-18-6 in UCFC games.

Kansas St. wins their third UCFC game in a row, and their all-time record is now 3-6.  They are also 10-0 for the first time since 1998, and they remain on pace to play for the BCS title.  They have only two games left on their regular-season schedule.  Next week, the Wildcats will defend their title on the road in Waco, Tex., where they will take on the Baylor Bears.  If they win that game, they will go home and play for an undefeated season on December 1 against the Texas Longhorns.

Saturday, November 10, 2012

Texas Christian 0 - 20 Kansas St. (8:21 left in 3d Quarter)

I can't tell if TCU just isn't very good or if K-State is really great, but the Wildcats are not having too much trouble tonight.  Collin Klein just took the Cats on another successful drive, which he topped off with a 34-yard scamper for a touchdown.  Right now it very much looks as though K-State will be holding the UCFC for another week.

Texas Christian 0 - 13 Kansas St. (32 seconds left in 2d Quarter)

Well, for once we are getting some real defense, and neither team has been able to do very much.  TCU just fumbled a punt inside its own 10, and K-State recovered.  But the Wildcats couldn't get into the end zone, and were forced to settle for a 20-yard field goal.

Texas Christian 0 - 10 Kansas St. (3:04 left in 1st Quarter)

K-State's defense holds, the Wildcats take the ball, and quickly return into TCU territory.  This drive ends with a 41-yard field goal by Anthony Cantele of Kapaun Mt. Carmel H.S. of Wichita, Kan.  So far, so good for the Wildcats.

Texas Christian 0 - 7 Kansas St. (8:14 left in 1st Quarter)

OK, normal service has resumed.  Collin Klein, K-State's All-American QB from Loveland H.S. in Loveland, Colo., leads the Wildcats on an 89-yard drive that is topped off by a 7-yard run by Klein himself. The Wildcats take the early lead.

By the way, TCU is wearing black shirts.  I think they would look better in the traditional purple.

Texas Christian 0 - 0 Kansas St. (11:00 left in 1st Quarter)

K-State's defense holds after the interception, and the Wildcats take over at their own 11.

The stakes just got much bigger for Kansas State, as Number-1 Alabama just lost (at home!) to Texas A & M by the score of 29-24.  It would be very ironic if A & M -- an old Big XII member -- opened the door for K-State to reach the BCS title game.

Texas Christian 0 - 0 Kansas St. (12:56 left in 1st Quarter)

Big XII games normally start with one team taking the opening kickoff and driving for a touchdown.  But this time that pattern was broken when Devonte Fields of Martin H.S. in Arlington, Tex. intercepted a K-State pass at the TCU 43.  That was only the Wildcats' fifth turnover of the year.

Texas Christian v. Kansas St.

Kansas State is 9-0 overall, and 6-0 in the Big XII.  They are the number 3 team in the nation, and they are part of a four-way scrum among Alabama, Oregon, K-State, and Notre Dame to see who will make the BCS Title Game.  Of course, the Wildcats also    hold the UCFC.  So the stakes are really high for Kansas State as we prepare for a rare purple vs. purple match-up between the Wildcats and Texas Christian.

It's a huge game for TCU as well.  The last time we saw the Horned Frogs, who are in their first season as a Big XII member, they had lost a UCFC game at home to Texas Tech in triple overtime to fall to 5-2.  Since then, the Frogs have played road games at Oklahoma State and West Virginia.  They were blown out by Oklahoma State (36-14), but then bounced back to beat WVU 39-38 in double overtime.  So the Frogs are now 3-3 in conference, and 6-3 overall.  They won't win the Big XII, even with a victory today, but they could get into a much better bowl game.

This is only the sixth meeting between K-State and TCU.  K-State beat TCU 45-0 in 1922, and the teams split four games in a series that ran from 1983-1986 -- a time when these were two of the worst major-conference football programs in the country.  So the Wildcats lead the all-time series 3-2, but none of those games were as important as this one.  It should also be noted that Gary Patterson, the TCU coach, is a K-State grad (class of '83).

K-State's great quarterback, Collin Klein, was knocked out of last week's game against Oklahoma State, but he is apparently ready to go today.  Vegas has installed the Wildcats as a 7-point favorite, and has set the over-under at 57.  That would add up to a 32-25 victory, but I would be stunned if the final score is that low.

Thursday, November 8, 2012

Wrap Up: 2012 Week 10

Kansas State defended their UCFC title with a 44-30 win over Oklahoma State. This week they will be at Texas Christian. This will give TCU their second shot at the title this year.

This past week in college football was all about the big games USC, Oregon and LSU, Alabama. To my mind the real winner this weekend was Alabama. They went to LSU and beat what is quite possibly the second best team in the country. This was the one game everyone was looking at and thinking that it could be the downfall of Alabama and the SEC's shot at another national championship, but they survived and now Alabama moves on to another tough game against a ranked Texas A&M team.

Oregon meanwhile once again impressed everyone with their offense, but their defense was dreadful. The big downfall Oregon has had over these past few seasons has been their soft defense and if they end up having to play USC again, I'm not so sure they can win it.

It is that time of year where all the focus is on who will fight it out for the national championship and who is bowl eligible. We are also closing in on who will win the conferences. Let's take a look at the current standings.

ACC:  Florida State and Clemson are both tied in the Atlantic Division with 5-1 records. Florida State beat Clemson earlier in the season and holds the tie breaker.  Miami of Florida leads the Coastal with a 4-2 record and so we could end up with a Miami, Florida State conference championship.  I can remember when those games were a big deal.

Big 10:  Ohio State leads the Leaders Division while Nebraska and Michigan are tied with 4-1 records in the Legends Division.  Probably the stupidest division names in sports history.  Nebraska beat Michigan earlier in the season so they hold the tie breaker.  Michigan still has to play Northwestern and Ohio State.  There is though something very critical here.  Neither Penn State nor Ohio State, the top two teams in the Leaders Division, are eligible to play in the conference championship game.  That defaults the top spot of the Leaders Division to Wisconsin 3-2 in conference play.

Big 12:  Kansas State should win the Big 12 unless they fall apart.  They have a 6-0 conference record.

Big East:  Currently Rutgers and Louisville are tied with 4-0 conference records and they are each others final regular season game.  Hopefully that will be the deciding game for the Big East.

Conference USA:  Central Florida leads the East Division with a 5-0 record, while Tulsa leads the West with a 5-0 record.  They will actually face each other during the regular season in their second to last regular season games.

MAC:  Of all the sub conferences this is the big one.  Kent State, Bowling Green, Ohio, Northern Illinois, Toledo, and Ball State all have seven or more wins this year.  Currently Kent State leads the East Division while Northern Illinois leads the West, both with undefeated conference records.  Ball State beat Toledo on Tuesday night and Bowling Green State beat Ohio on Wednesday.  Kent State has Miami of Ohio this week, then close out with Bowling Green and Ohio.  Northern Illinois is off this week then faces Toledo and Eastern Michigan.  This should be an exciting race.

MWC:  Fresno State and San Diego State currently sit tied at the top of the Mountain West with 5-1 records.  Boise State and Air Force are at 4-1 in conference play.  Fresno State is at Nevada this week who is 6-3 and 3-2 in conference, while San Diego State will be hosting Air Force.  Two good games to watch this weekend.

PAC 12:  Oregon leads the North with a 6-0 record and they are expected to win out, though they do still have to play Oregon State and Stanford in their Division.  Meanwhile UCLA leads the South Division.  Who would have thought that.  They still have to play USC and Stanford.  This will be the first time in a long time where the UCLA, USC game may have some real meaning.  Currently USC sits just behind UCLA in their Division and if these positions hold up a win would put USC into the PAC 12 championship game.

SEC:  Alabama is a lock to win the West, unless something very strange happens, but the East is a battle between Florida and Georgia both with one loss records in conference.  The key there is that Georgia holds the tie breaker over Florida.  Florida is done with SEC play while Georgia travels to Auburn this week to finish out their SEC play.  A win this week clinches the SEC East for Georgia.

Sun Belt:   There are three teams tied with 4-1 records in Sun Belt conference play:  Louisiana-Monroe, Arkansas State, and Middle Tennessee State.  Louisiana-Monroe has to travel to Arkansas State this week while Middle Tennessee State is off.

WAC:  It's the last year for the WAC and they have a unique situation with one of their teams, Louisiana Tech getting nationally ranked.  Louisiana Tech and Utah State are currently undefeated in conference play and they play next week.  That should be a good game.


Games to watch this week

Louisiana-Monroe (6-3) at Arkansas State (6-3)
     This game is being played tonight and should be a good game.  I have really enjoyed the Sun Belt games I've watched this season.

Wisconsin (6-3) at Indiana (4-5)
     If Indiana wins this game it will put them at the top of the Leaders Division.  Indiana then closes out with Penn State and Purdue while Wisconsin would have to play Ohio State and Penn State.  So who knows maybe Indiana will win the Big 10.

Northwestern (7-2) at Michigan (6-3)
     Hard to think of Northwestern maybe being better than Michigan.  Truth is if Northwestern knew how to hold onto a lead they would be looking at winning the Big 10 this year.

Oregon State (7-1) at Stanford (7-2)
     This should be a good game, though maybe a bit low scoring.

Texas A&M (7-2) at Alabama (9-0)
     A&M is a pretty good team and they'll be hoping this is a trap game for Alabama.

Air Force (5-4) at San Diego State (7-3)
     This should be an easy win for San Diego State, but it's a big game this late in the season.

Vanderbilt (5-4) at Mississippi (5-4)
     If I'm thinking correctly you need to get to six wins to be bowl eligible so this will be a big game for these two teams.

Kansas State (9-0) at Texas Christian (6-3)
     This should be a good UCFC title game and will be another critical win for Kansas State if they hope to be atop Oregon at the end of the year for a shot at the BCS title game.  They need to win and win big.


TUCFC Power Ratings
With their win over LSU Alabama moves into the top slot.  Texas A&M and Clemson both move into the top ten while Florida State and South Carolina fall out.

RankTeamRecordWPWDiffPLPLDiffPPower
1Alabama9-0408.906577.6250.0000.000986.531
2Notre Dame9-0460.313496.6120.0000.000956.925
3Oregon9-0386.094562.2750.0000.000948.369
4Kansas State9-0377.531541.3500.0000.000918.881
5Florida8-1428.531485.1755.50035.000873.206
6Ohio State10-0380.000439.5870.0000.000819.588
7Georgia8-1310.969422.7257.12556.875669.694
8Louisiana State7-2307.531369.6005.75023.750647.631
9Texas A&M7-2236.813413.68810.25031.375608.875
10Clemson8-1271.656376.53713.18841.813593.194






Saturday, November 3, 2012

Kansas St. 44 - 30 Oklahoma St. (Final)

As is typical in Big XII play, there were a bunch more points scored after that last K-State touchdown, but the Wildcats were never in serious danger.  They run their all-time record in UCFC play to 2-6.  Meanwhile, down in Baton Rouge, LSU leads Alabama 17-14 very late in the 4th Quarter.  That game could turn out to be very important for K-State's national title hopes.

OSU's record in UCFC games falls to 2-9, but at least they scored a bunch of points.

Next week, the Kansas State Wildcats (who are now 9-0) for the first time since 1999, will travel to Fort Worth, TX to defend their crown against the Texas Christian Horned Frogs.  It will be TCU's second shot at the UCFC this year.  A few weeks ago, they lost to Texas Tech in overtime.  We'll see if they do any better next week.

Kansas St. 38 - 17 Oklahoma St. (10:02 left in 3d Quarter)

Oklahoma State comes out and gets another good drive going, but it ends when Lunt throws his third interception of the game.  K-State takes over at its own 7, and then launches a 93-yard drive that ends with a 1-yard plunge by Klein.  It looks as though K-State will hold the UCFC for another week.

Kansas St. 31 - 17 Oklahoma St. (Halftime)

K-State doesn't have time to score before the half arrives.  But the Wildcats are on pace for another 50-point day and another week of holding the UCFC.  It's hard to see, however, how this type of football prepares you for beating teams like Alabama and LSU who play real defense.

Kansas St. 31 - 17 Oklahoma St. (58 seconds left in 2d Quarter)

Oklahoma St. had another good drive going, but Ty Zimmerman gets his second takeaway of the day -- and K-State's third takeaway of the half -- when he intercepts an OSU pass at the K-State 23.  Turnovers are just killing OSU.

Meanwhile, Alabama has taken a 14-3 lead over LSU late in the second quarter.

Kansas St. 31 - 17 Oklahoma St. (2:35 left in 2d Quarter)

Oklahoma State's defense holds, and K-State is forced to punt.  But on first down for OSU, Wes Lunt's pass is picked off by Allen Chapman of San Francisco, CA, and Chapman takes the ball 29 yards for a K-State touchdown.

The Wildcats have four TD's, only one of which was the result of a long offensive drive.  They have also scored thanks to a fumble recovery (which put them on the OSU 29), an interception, and a kickoff return.

Meanwhile, Alabama continues to lead LSU 7-3 late in the second quarter.

Kansas St. 24 - 17 Oklahoma St. (7:24 left in 2d Quarter)

Now the Big XII is just mocking me and my SEC ways.

After K-State scores a touchdown on a kickoff return, the Wildcats kickoff to Oklahoma State.  Desmond Roland of Lake Highland H.S. in Dallas, TX takes the ball at his 20 and runs 80 yards for an OSU touchdown.

COME ON, SOMEBODY HIT SOMEBODY OUT THERE!!!

Kansas St. 24 - 10 Oklahoma St. (7:30 left in 2d Quarter)

I told them, but they wouldn't listen.  Oklahoma State kicks off, and Tyler Lockett runs the kickoff back 100 yards for a touchdown to put K-State up by 14.  He was almost completely untouched.

Meanwhile, Alabama still leads LSU 7-3 after a fake field goal by the Tigers doesn't work.

Kansas St. 17 - 10 Oklahoma St. (7:47 left in 2d Quarter)

Oklahoma State takes the kickoff and charges back down the field before their drive stalls at the K-State 7. Quinn Sharp of Summit H.S. in Mansfield, TX comes in and boots a 25-yard field goal to bring OSU within a touchdown.  But, of course, now OSU will probably kick the ball to K-State (which would be a big mistake).

Kansas St. 17 - 7 Oklahoma St. (10:51 left in 2d Quarter)

Now OSU is in big trouble.  The Pokes fumble at their own 32, and the fumble is scooped up by K-State's Ty Zimmerman of Junction City H.S. in Junction City, KS, who takes it to the OSU 29.  A few plays later, John Hubert strolls into the end zone from five yards out for his second TD of the day.

Meanwhile, in Baton Rouge, Alabama caps off a long drive with a touchdown run, and the Tide leads 7-3 with 8:17 before half.

Kansas St. 10 - 7 Oklahoma St. (14:13 left in 2d Quarter)

LSU still leads 3-0 after one quarter.  In the Little Apple, K-State holds Oklahoma State, takes the ball back, and goes on a long drive that stalls at the OSU 6.  Anthony Cantele of Kapaun Mt. Carmel Catholic H.S. in Wichita, KS comes in a boots a 23-yard field goal to put the Wildcats on top by three.

Kansas St. 7 - 7 Oklahoma St. (5:58 left in 1st Quarter)

Down in Baton Rouge, LSU has kicked a field goal to take a 3-0 lead over Alabama.  Meanwhile, in Manhattan, KS, the offense continues.  Collin Klein, K-State's quarterback (and Heisman Trophy candidate) from Loveland H.S. in Loveland CO, hits Tyler Lockett (from Booker T. Washington H.S. in Tulsa, OK) with a 50-yard pass to put the Wildcats deep into Oklahoma State territory.  Soon thereafter, John Hubert (from Midway H.S. in Waco, TX) dashes in from one yard out to tie the game.

Kansas St. 0 - 7 Oklahoma St. (9:02 left in 1st Quarter)

Down in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, LSU and Alabama are still sounding each other out, but it's never too early to start scoring in the Big XII.  K-State drove to midfield and punted into the end zone.  Oklahoma State took over, and a few plays later Wes Lunt from Rochester H.S. in Rochester, IL chucked a 54-yard pass to a wide-open Austin Hays from Ronald Reagan H.S. in San Antonio, TX.  Hays strolls into the end zone without being touched -- which happens a lot in Big XII football -- and the Cowpokes take the early lead.

Kansas St. 0 - 0 Oklahoma St. (15 minutes left in 1st Quarter)

Oklahoma State kicks off through the end zone, and another UCFC battle is under way!  Tonight's game has Brent Musberger and Kirk Herbstreit, the first time in awhile we've seen those guys at a UCFC game.

Kansas St. v. Oklahoma St.

The land-grant colleges from Kansas and Oklahoma have spent most of their history being overshadowed by  the liberal arts schools, so this match-up has rarely generated much national attention.  In fact, this is probably the most important game ever between K-State and Oklahoma State.  The Wildcats hold the UCFC, they are ranked number 3 in the AP poll, they are the only unbeaten team in the Big XII, and they have a good chance to play for the national title if they can win out.  Oklahoma State is 5-2 overall and 3-1 in conference, they are riding a three-game winning streak, and they could move into first place in the Big XII with a win tonight.  So this is a big game -- and, if course, it is even bigger because it will decide the UCFC.

This series goes all the way back to 1908, and the teams were both long-time members of the old Big Eight conference.  Down through the years, K-State has usually been slightly worse than Oklahoma State, and the Cowboys lead the series 36-22.  This will be the first time the Wildcats and Cowboys have ever played for the UCFC.

Last year, the Cowboys won this game 52-45 down in Stillwater, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar score tonight.  Vegas has the Wildcats favored by 8 1/2 in a game with an over-under of 67 points -- which would translate into something like a 38-30 K-State victory.  Personally, I will be very surprised if the winning team scores only 38 points in this game, but I do expect the Wildcats to retain the Big Gold Trophy.

Oklahoma St.

For decades, Oklahoma State University has labored in the shadow of its better-known rival in Norman.  In fact, the Cowboys are a horrific 17-82-7 all-time against the Sooners.  Being at such a disadvantage in their home state, the Cowboys have rarely broken through on a national level.  But OSU has had its own moments of glory -- with great players (like Barry Sanders), coaches (Jimmy Johnson and Les Miles), and fans (the deep-pocketed T. Boone Pickens).  In fact, we are currently living through what may be the most glorious era in OSU football history.  Mike Gundy, their current coach, is 59-30 all-time in Stillwater, and last year the Cowboys had a spectacular team.  They won their first Big XII title in stirring fashion with a 44-10 victory over Oklahoma, and then they edged Andrew Luck and the Stanford Cardinal 41-38 in the Fiesta Bowl.  They finished the year with a record of 12-1, and were ranked number 3 in the country by AP -- the highest year-end ranking of any Cowpoke team in history.

Oklahoma State has not had too much success in UCFC play.  They took the title for the first and only time on October 11, 2008, with a 28-23 victory over Missouri, and defended the title the next week with a 34-6 win over Baylor.  But then they lost the crown in a 28-24 loss to Texas, and they haven't gotten it back.  Their all-time UCFC record is 2-8.

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Wrap Up: 2012 Week 9

Kansas State blew out Texas Tech 55-24 to not only take a critical win, but also grab the Unofficial College Football Championship. They will be hosting Oklahoma State next week.

It is very hard to go the full season undefeated as Florida, Rutgers, Ohio, Mississippi State, and Oregon State all found out this past weekend. We are down to just a handful of undefeated teams now and of them only four right now really matter: Alabama, Oregon, Notre Dame, and Kansas State. I put them in that order for a good reason. If things continue on this path and all four teams end the season undefeated, I believe that is the order in which they will finish in the BCS.

Of course being a blog that is Kentucky centric, maybe it's about time we mention the 8-0 Louisville Cardinals. They are the only remaining team in the Big East that is undefeated and yet they have not a shot of making the BCS title game. There is of course a good reason for that. Rutgers was thought to be better than Louisville, Rutgers got manhandled this weekend by Kent State, Kent State's one loss this season was a blowout loss to Kentucky. How good then can any team in the Big East really be. Of course Louisville beat Kentucky and so far everyone they've played. They don't usually win big, but they keep winning and hopefully it can continue until the end of the season. They still have four games remaining on their schedule: Temple, @ Syracuse, Connecticut, and @ Rutgers.

The big game this last week that everyone was watching was Notre Dame, Oklahoma. Notre Dame dominated the game and so they are now settling in near the top of the pile. Their last big test will be their final game of the season at USC, assuming they remain undefeated. The problem for Notre Dame is that stock in Oklahoma, the Big 10, and USC has fallen far from where it was at the beginning of the season. So even though they have solid wins people still question just how good they are.

The big fall last week was of course Florida. Georgia was embarrassed a few weeks ago by South Carolina, but they bounced back to not only beat Florida, but to also put themselves in position to win the SEC East. Now the only team left standing in the SEC with a shot at the BCS title is Alabama, unless of course more undefeated teams lose.

This week there are a couple of really big games to watch.

Middle Tennessee State (5-3) at Western Kentucky (6-2)
     I'm pretty sure both these teams were picked to be in the bottom 25 at the beginning of the year by Sagarin and both have wins over BCS Conference teams.

Oregon (8-0) at USC (6-2)
     Everyone has been waiting for Oregon to play this game.  Despite their two losses everyone still considers USC to be a top team, they just have an idiot for a coach.  At this point though I believe people will be disappointed in Oregon if they don't win this one easily.

Alabama (8-0) at LSU (7-1)
     There has been some talk lately about how Alabama really hasn't beaten anyone.  If they go into LSU and win that will pretty much silence all of those people.  Despite all of LSU's flaws people understand they are still one of the best teams in the country.



TUCFC Power Ratings
Notre Dame makes the jump up to number one and Oregon jumps up to number two.  Georgia and South Carolina both move back in with Georgia's win over Florida, while Texas Tech and Oklahoma fall out.

RankTeamRecordWPWDiffPLPLDiffPPower
1Notre Dame8-0337.844421.8750.0000.000759.719
2Oregon8-0242.313464.5750.0000.000706.887
3Kansas State8-0261.406444.4750.0000.000705.881
4Alabama8-0229.969460.2250.0000.000690.194
5Florida7-1280.094387.7635.00035.000627.856
6Ohio State9-0266.063350.6630.0000.000616.725
7Louisiana State7-1234.750328.3384.00019.750539.338
8Florida State8-1180.313439.90024.43886.875508.900
9Georgia7-1209.188328.1386.25055.875475.200
10South Carolina7-2191.438331.9137.75056.375459.225

Saturday, October 27, 2012

Kansas St. 55 - 24 Texas Tech (Final)

If you've been following the Big XII this year, you won't be surprised to learn that K-State scored 42 points in the second half to pull away for a 55-24 victory.  This is the fifth week in a row that the UCFC has been decided in a Big XII game, and the winning team has scored at least 48 points every time.  I don't know how they get anyone to bet the under on these games.  Today's over-under line was 60, and the teams combined for 79 points.

So K-State wins the UCFC for the first time in its history, and the Wildcats run their record to 1-6 in UCFC games.  They will defend the title next week at home against Oklahoma State.  If they can win that game -- and the three games remaining after that -- the Wildcats will probably play for the national championship.

As for Texas Tech, they had two good wins over WVU and TCU, and they looked to be in good shape at the half today -- but KSU's quality told in the second half, and Texas Tech's defense simply fell apart.  The Red Raiders' UCFC record falls to 17-13, but Tommy Tuberville appears to be making progress down in Lubbock.