Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Texas Christian v. Mississippi

Today's Peach Bowl is huge for fans of the UCFC, as it will determine who gets the title for the next season.  Furthermore, it will decide whether the UCFC starts off in the Big XII for the fourth year in a row, or whether it returns to the SEC for the first time since early in the 2011 season.

This game will be only the sixth meeting between the Texas Christian Horned Frogs and the Ole Miss Rebels -- the Rebels lead the all-time series 4-1.  The two teams have never met for the UCFC before.  But they do have some interesting history.  Johnny Vaught, the legendary coach at Ole Miss from 1947 to 1970, was a graduate of Texas Christian.  And the two teams met on January 1, 1948 in Memphis at the inaugural Delta Bowl.  (This was also the next-to-last Delta Bowl, as the game only lasted for two seasons.)  Ole Miss won that game 13-9.  Eight years later, the Rebels and Horned Frogs met in the 1956 Cotton Bowl.  Both teams were 9-1 going into this game, which was a cracker.  You can see the highlights here.  The Rebels, led by quarterback Eagle Day (which may be the best name in the history of SEC football, if not all sports), pulled out a dramatic, come-from-behind victory, beating the Horned Frogs 14 to 13.

This game will probably feature a lot more points than the two previous bowl meetings between Texas Christian and Ole Miss.  Vegas likes Texas Christian to win by more than 3 points in a game where 56 points will be scored.  That would work out to a 30-26 Texas Christian win.

Personally, I'm going to be surprised if the Rebels keep it that close.  Ole Miss lost three of its last five games in the regular season, and one of those victories was against Presbyterian -- not exactly a powerhouse.  Meanwhile, Texas Christian steamrolled almost every team it played, and capped off the year with dominant wins over Texas (48-10) and Iowa State (55-3).

The only way you can give Ole Miss much of a chance in this game is if you think the Big XII is significantly weaker than the SEC.  And that could be the case.  Here's how the two leagues have done in the bowl games so far:

SEC (4-1)
Independence Bowl:  S. Carolina 24, Miami (Fla.) 21
Liberty Bowl:  Texas A & M 45, W. Virginia 37
Texas Bowl:  Arkansas 31, Texas 7
Music City Bowl:  Notre Dame 31, Louisiana St. 28
Belk Bowl:  Georgia 37, Louisville 14

Big XII (0-3)
Liberty Bowl:  Texas A & M 45, W. Virginia 37
Russell Athletic Bowl:  Clemson 40, Oklahoma 6
Texas Bowl:  Arkansas 31, Texas 7

The Oklahoma and Texas results are pretty ugly, but those teams were fading down the stretch anyway -- Texas Christian crushed UT just a few weeks ago.  To me, it would be embarrassing if Texas Christian -- which was screaming about being left out of the College Football Playoff -- loses to a team that is no better than fourth or fifth in the SEC.

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