The last time we checked in on this fixture, the Horned Frogs were beating Iowa State 55-3 to wrap up the 2014 regular season. Since then, Texas Christian has won seven more UCFC match-ups, while the Cyclones have toiled in their usual mediocrity. So far this year, Iowa State is 2-3, with wins against Northern Iowa and Kansas, but defeats against Iowa (31-17), Toledo (30-23), and Texas Tech (66-31). Here's where the Horned Frogs and the Cyclones are in the Big XII standings (conference games only, with AP rankings in parentheses):
(3) Texas Christian: 3-0
(16) Oklahoma St: 3-0
(2) Baylor: 2-0
(19) Oklahoma: 1-1
Iowa St: 1-1
Texas Tech: 1-2
Texas: 1-2
Kansas St: 0-2
W. Virginia: 0-2
Kansas: 0-2
(Keep an eye on Oklahoma State, by the way. The Cowboys' last three home games of the season are against Texas Christian (Nov. 7), Baylor (Nov. 21), and Oklahoma (Nov. 28). So the path to the championship runs through Stillwater.)
(I'm not saying anything yet about the Texas Christian/Baylor game scheduled for the day after Thanksgiving -- it's way too early for that.)
Iowa State will draw some hope from the fact that Texas Christian's defense has been terrible in its two conference road games -- the Frogs gave up 52 points at Texas Tech, and 45 points at Kansas State. But Texas Christian survived both of those games -- and they may show up on both sides of the ball this week. On the other hand, they were terrible at Kansas last year -- just barely surviving a 34-30 slugfest against a very weak team.
Faced with the Horned Frogs' inconsistencies, and trying to split the difference between a 55-3 blowout and a 34-30 nail-biter, Vegas has made Texas Christian a 20 1/2 point favorite in a game where the oddsmakers expect 72 1/2 points to be scored. That would result in something like a 47-26 win for the Horned Frogs. But just as I was nervous about the K-State game, I'm feeling more hopeful this week. I may be wrong, but I have a feeling Texas Christian will do better than the odds indicate.
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