Louisiana St. v. Alabama

According to "And the Valley Shook," if LSU is Animal, then Alabama is Kermit:

Alabama is Kermit. Look, the truth hurts. Bama, like Kermit, is the premier program of the conference what with their twenty billion titles or whatever. They get all of the plaudits and are the leaders of this ragtag mob. The perception of the conference is tied to Bama, just as the fortunes of the Muppets are tied to Kermit. Damn them. Though, unlike Bama, Kermit uses his powers for good.

It's hard to argue with most of that, although of course folks will disagree over whether Alabama uses its powers for good.  It also explains why the LSU/Alabama game is usually one of the best fixtures of the year.  LSU's biggest weakness is a tendency to lose concentration against lesser opponents -- but they don't have that problem when they play Alabama.  On the other hand, Alabama is often able to use superior coaching -- Alabama fans would call it "character" -- to defeat LSU's talent and enthusiasm.  From 1971 to 1981, Bear Bryant ran off 11 wins in a row against LSU -- and some of those LSU teams were very good.  Alabama leads the all-time series 50-25-5.

But LSU has been in a Golden Age lately, and the Tigers ran off five straight against Alabama from 2003 to 2006 before the Tide hired Nick Saban.  Of course, Saban had been LSU's coach from 2000 to 2003, so Tiger fans were enraged at his decision to join Alabama.  But Saban is not moved by those sorts of considerations, and soon the annual grudge match between LSU and Alabama had become one of the must-see games on the national schedule.  Check out these results (home team listed first):

11/03/07:  Alabama 34 - 41 Louisiana St.  (LSU keeps the UCFC and goes on to win the national title)

11/08/08:  Louisiana St. 21 - 27 Alabama (Overtime) (Alabama stays number 1 in the country)

11/07/09:  Alabama 24 - 15 Louisiana St.  (Alabama goes on to win the national title)

11/06/10:  Louisiana St. 24 - 21 Alabama

11/05/11:  Alabama 6 - 9 Louisiana St. (Overtime)  This was a huge game, because it allowed LSU to win the SEC West, and then the SEC Championship, and gain a spot in the national title game.  If LSU had played any other team for the national title, the Tigers would have given Les Miles his second national championship -- and the history of college football would be very different.  But everything went wrong for LSU.  There were a bunch of late-season upsets, and in the end Alabama was given a rematch in the Sugar Bowl.  That game ended like this:

01/09/12:  Louisiana St. 0 - 21 Alabama  I thought at the time that this was the greatest game Alabama had ever played.  That may still be true.  But in any event, Nick Saban got his second national title at Alabama.  And LSU has never fully recovered.  In fact, they haven't beaten the Tide since.

11/03/12:  Louisiana St. 17 - 21 Alabama (The Tide went on to win another national title, its third in four years)

11/09/13:  Alabama 38 - 17 Louisiana St.

11/08/14:  Louisiana St. 13 - 20 Alabama (Overtime) (The Tide trailed most of the game, but sent it to overtime with a last-second touchdown).

11/07/15:  Alabama 30 - 16 Louisiana St. (The Tide went on to claim Nick Saban's fourth national title in seven seasons).

That left Saban with a record of 7-3 over Les Miles, and a record of 4-1 over Miles in national titles.  It was those games, more than anything else, that undermined support for Miles and cause LSU to fire him after two early losses this season.

The stakes for this game are enormous.  Mississippi State upset Texas A & M today, so the standings in the SEC West now look like this (conference games only):

(1) Alabama:  5-0
(11) Auburn:  5-1
(15) LSU:  3-1
(7) Texas A & M:  4-2
Mississippi St:  2-3
Arkansas:  1-3
Ole Miss:  1-4

Today is Alabama's last true road game of the season -- they've already won at Mississippi, Arkansas, and Tennessee.  If the Crimson Tide win today, they will be one step closer to defending their national title.  But if LSU can pull the upset, the Tigers will not only get the UCFC -- they will have a good chance to win the SEC themselves.

Normally, the game of the day in the SEC is shown at 2:30 P.M. Central Time on CBS.  But CBS is doing a prime-time game tonight, due to LSU's unique love of night football.  Kickoff is at 7 Central.  ESPN Gameday, recognizing the importance of this game, showed up in Baton Rouge today, where it was met with signs like "Nick Saban uses a private e-mail server."

Vegas favors Alabama by 7 in a game where 45 1/2 points are expected.  That would work out to a 26-19 win for the Tide, and my guess is that Nick Saban would take that right now.  Ed Orgeron is 3-0 in Baton Rouge, and the Tigers will do everything they can to win this one.