Saturday, October 26, 2019

Ohio St. v. Wisconsin

OK, so let's review what Ohio State has done so far in its first year under coach Ryan Day (home teams listed first):

08/31/19:  Ohio St. 45 - 21 Florida Atlantic
09/07/19:  Ohio St. 42 - 0 Cincinnati
09/14/19:  Indiana 10 - 51 Ohio St.
09/21/19:  Ohio St. 76 - 5 Miami (Ohio)
09/28/19:  Nebraska 7 - 48 Ohio St.
10/05/19:  Ohio St. 34 - 10 Michigan St.
10/18/19:  Northwestern 3 - 52 Ohio St.

Very impressive.  OSU is number 3 in the country, trailing only Alabama and LSU.  They are 7-0, and they have yet to play a competitive fourth quarter.  But check out Wisconsin's record:

08/30/19:  S. Florida 0 - 49 Wisconsin
09/07/19:  Wisconsin 61 - 0 Cent. Michigan
09/21/19:  Wisconsin 35 - 14 Michigan
09/28/19:  Wisconsin 24 - 15 Northwestern
10/05/19:  Wisconsin 48 - 0 Kent St.
10/12/19:  Wisconsin 38 - 0 Michigan St.
10/19/19:  Illinois 24 - 23 Wisconsin

Until their trip to Champaign-Urbana last week, the Badgers were playing extraordinarily well.  They were caught napping at the end of the Illinois game and it cost them.  So today's game -- which should have been the Game of the Year in the Big 10 with two top-six teams -- features the number-3 Buckeyes against the number-13 Badgers.  Now it's not even the biggest game of the day; that honor goes to LSU v. Auburn.

But Kentucky fans know that Wisconsin is not the sort of team you want to play when they are the underdogs.  It is very difficult for the Badgers to maintain the type of discipline and focus that you need to go all the way -- they will often lose just when you start to believe in them.  But what they love to do more than anything is to beat heavy favorites.  And like Taylor Swift, there is nothing that they do better than revenge.  Now that the Badgers have probably thrown away their own chance at reaching the College Football Playoff, they would love to spoil Ohio State's chances.  The Buckeyes will not see the team that threw away a pretty easy win against a mediocre Illinois team.  Instead, they will host the guys who blew out Michigan and Michigan State.

Of course, the Buckeyes may turn out to be so good that they can beat Wisconsin even when the Badgers are going all out.  That's what Vegas thinks.  The folks out there have installed OSU as a 14 point favorite in a game where 49 points are expected.  That would work out to something like a 31-17 win for the Buckeyes -- and a very impressive win it would be.

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