Texas Christian v. Kansas St.

The last few weeks have been very dramatic for the UCFC.  Since September 20, the title has changed hands four different times, and Texas Christian now holds it for the second time this season.  The Horned Frogs have already been in three epic UCFC games this season -- a 37-33 victory over Oklahoma, a 61-58 loss to Baylor, and a 31-30 win over West Virginia.  Meanwhile, Kansas State has yet to appear in a UCFC game this season -- in large part because the Wildcats have yet to play Texas Christian, Baylor, or West Virginia.  With the exception of a 31-30 win at Oklahoma, K-State has been working its way through the soft underbelly of the Big XII, racking up wins over Iowa State, Texas Tech, Texas, and Oklahoma State.  So going into today's games, the Big XII standings looked like this (AP rankings in parentheses):

(9) Kansas St:  5-0, 7-1
(10) Baylor:  4-1, 7-1
(6) Texas Christian:  4-1, 7-1
W. Virginia:  4-2, 6-3
(16) Oklahoma:  3-2, 6-2
Oklahoma St:  3-3, 5-4
Texas:  3-3, 4-5
Texas Tech:  1-5, 3-6
Iowa St:  0-5, 2-6
Kansas:  0-5, 2-6

So this is an enormous game for Texas Christian, Kansas State, and the UCFC.  The stakes could not be much higher.  K-State, Baylor, and Texas Christian all have very good chances to qualify for the NCAA Playoff, and this game will go far in determining whether that will happen -- and whether the UCFC will be on the table when that playoff kicks off.

When I was growing up, these were two of the worst programs in all of big-time college football -- in fact, Texas Christian lost its big-time status altogether for decades after the Southwest Conference collapsed.  But since about 1990, K-State and Texas Christian have been very solid programs -- and now they have a chance to achieve great national acclaim.

Given that K-State's schedule has been relatively soft, it's hard to tell how they will match up with the battle-tested Horned Frogs -- especially on the road in Fort Worth.  Vegas has made Texas Christian a 6 1/2 point favorite, with an over-under of 58 1/2.  That would work out to something like a 33-26 win for the Frogs, which would be a low-scoring game by recent Big XII standards.  My own instinct is that Texas Christian really is the best team in the Big XII, and one of the best in the country, and I think they will mount a very impressive title defense tonight in front of their home fans.