Oklahoma St. v. Baylor

A few weeks ago, we noted that the Big XII title was going to be decided in a November round-robin involving Baylor, Texas Christian, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma.  Here is what has happened so far:

1.  On November 7, Oklahoma State whipped Texas Christian in Stillwater, Okla., beating the Horned Frogs 49-29 and taking the UCFC.

2.  On November 14, Oklahoma went to Waco, Tex. and beat Baylor 44-34.  So now the Big XII standings look like this (AP rankings in parentheses):

(4) Oklahoma St.  7-0, 10-0
(7) Oklahoma  6-1, 9-1
(11) Texas Christian  6-1, 9-1
(10) Baylor  5-1, 8-1
Texas  3-4, 4-6
W. Virginia  3-4, 6-4
Texas Tech  3-5, 6-5
Iowa St.  2-6, 3-8
Kansas St.  1-6, 4-6
Kansas  0-8, 0-11

So as you can see, this is an enormous game, not only for the UCFC, but for the national scene.  With Ohio State losing this afternoon, Oklahoma State is now one of only three undefeated major-conference teams (the others being Iowa and Clemson).  If Oklahoma State can win its last two games of this year -- this one and next week's Bedlam game with Oklahoma -- the Cowboys will almost certainly be in the College Football Playoff.

But on the other hand, if Baylor can win out, the Bears still have a good chance to win the Big XII and get into the playoff themselves.  Unfortunately for Baylor, their season is crumbling under a barrage of injuries.  Seth Russell, the Bears' star quarterback, suffered a neck injury in a late-October game against Iowa State, and is out for the year.  Jarrett Stridham, the Bears' back-up quarterback (who is a freshman), suffered a back injury last week against Oklahoma, although he is expected to play through it.  I thought Baylor really missed Russell last week against Oklahoma -- they just didn't have the explosiveness that they normally show at home.  And, of course, we know that Baylor -- like almost everyone in the Big XII -- tends to struggle on the road.  The last time they game to Stillwater was November 23, 2013.  At the time, they were undefeated and had held the UCFC for over a year, but the Cowboys pounded them, 49 to 17.  If they are to avoid a similar fate tonight, their defense will have to provide some support for their freshman quarterback.

The oddsmakers think that this game will be a classic.  Baylor is actually favored by 2 1/2 points in a game where the teams are expected to score 76 1/2 points.  That would be something like a 39-37 win for the Bears.  I usually think the oddsmakers get it right, but I'm going the other way tonight.  I think Oklahoma State is much better at home than they are on the road, and I think they will be too much for Baylor.