A few weeks ago, it was obvious that the Big XII title would be decided in a round robin between Texas Christian, Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma. A few weeks ago, Oklahoma had a loss to Texas, while Texas Christian, Baylor, and OSU were undefeated. Here is what has happened since:
1. On November 7, Texas Christian went to Oklahoma State, where the Horned Frogs were hammered 49 to 29. Texas Christian also lost Josh Doctson, the outstanding receiver who had helped carry the Frogs for most of the season.
2. On November 14, Oklahoma rolled into Waco, Tex. and whipped Baylor 44-34, which allowed the Sooners to control their own destiny the rest of the way.
3. On November 21, Baylor went to Stillwater, Okla. and avenged itself on the Sooner State with a 45-35 win over Oklahoma State -- a game that was not nearly as close as the final score would indicate.
4. While Baylor was beating Oklahoma State, Texas Christian's last effort to salvage a Big XII title -- and a chance at the national championship -- was coming to an end in Norman, Okla. The Frogs fell behind Oklahoma 30-13 after three quarters, but Oklahoma's offense stalled after an injury to quarterback Baker Mayfield. That allowed the Frogs a chance to get back into the game, and they took advantage. Playing without quarterback Trevone Boykin and Doctson -- the Dynamic Duo that had led them all year, the Frogs rallied behind back-up QB Bram Kohlhausen. With 8:59 left, Kohlhausen cashed in a Big XII Special -- an 86-yard catch and run TD pass. OU 30, Texas Christian 20. Three plays later, Texas Christian got the ball back thanks to an interception. With 6:27 left, a field goal made the score OU 30, Texas Christian 23. OU went three-and-out, and soon the Frogs were on the march again. Looking like their old selves, the Frogs went 76 yards in 12 plays to get another touchdown. OU 30, Texas Christian 29. With only 51 seconds left, Texas Christian coach Gary Patterson decided to go for the two-point conversion -- and the win -- on the road. It was a bold move -- but the pass was broken up, and the Sooners escaped with a one-point win.
Now the standings look like this (AP rankings in parentheses):
(5) Oklahoma: 7-1, 10-1
(9) Oklahoma St: 7-1, 10-1
(7) Baylor: 6-1, 9-1
(15) Texas Christian: 6-2, 9-2
Texas Tech: 4-5, 7-5
W. Virginia: 3-4, 6-4
Texas: 3-5, 4-7
Iowa St: 2-6, 3-8
Kansas St: 1-6, 4-6
Kansas: 0-8, 0-11
And tonight, in Fort Worth, Tex., Baylor and Texas Christian will play for the UCFC -- a trophy that they have dominated in recent years. Baylor took the title toward the end of the 2012 season, and held it for most of 2013. Baylor took the title again last year in a 61-58 shootout with Texas Christian, only to lose to West Virginia -- who then lost to Texas Christian. The Horned Frogs then kept the title for over a year, defending the crown 13 times before losing to Oklahoma State a few weeks ago. This is the last game of the year for Texas Christian, and if the Frogs could win tonight, they would take the Big Gold Trophy into bowl season.
The story for Baylor is a bit more complicated. The Bears have two games left -- tonight's game in Fort Worth, and a home game next Saturday against Texas. The Texas Longhorns have struggled all year, and would be heavy underdogs against Baylor. So if Baylor can win tonight, there is a good chance the Bears will hold the title at the end of the regular season.
But where would they go with it? Here is the top 10 in the latest College Football Playoff Rankings:
1. Clemson: 11-0
2. Alabama: 10-1
3. Oklahoma: 10-1
4. Iowa: 11-0
5. Michigan St: 10-1
6. Notre Dame: 10-1
7. Baylor: 9-1
8. Ohio St: 10-1
9. Stanford: 9-2
10. Michigan: 9-2
OK, so four teams make the playoff. If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State tomorrow in Stillwater, the Sooners will win the Big XII title (they have the tie-breaker over Baylor), and they will get a spot in the playoff. I think that would kill Baylor's chances, as the Committee is not likely to give the Big XII two of the four playoff slots. (Baylor didn't help itself here by having three local patsies -- Southern Methodist, Lamar, and Rice -- as its non-conference opponents).
On the other hand, if OSU could knock off OU, Baylor could win the Big XII title -- the Bears have the tie-breaker against OSU. If that happens, I believe Baylor has a very good chance of getting into the playoff, because the teams ahead of it have a number of tough games before the season is over. It would be a pretty big upset for OSU to pull off -- OU is favored by 7 points -- but the Cowboys/Sooners is series is not called "Bedlam" for nothing.
So tonight's game between Baylor and Texas Christian has huge ramifications for the UCFC, the Big XII title, and potentially the national championship. Thanks to last year's 61-58 win over Texas Christian, the Bears lead the all-time series 52-51-7. But Baylor's down to its third-string quarterback tonight, as the Bears' top two QB's are out with injury. On the other hand, Texas Christian has lost Josh Doctson, and Trevone Boykin was unable to go in the second half against Oklahoma.
Putting it all together, the oddsmakers have installed Baylor as a 2-point favorite over Texas Christian, in a game where 73 points are expected. That would work out to something like a 38-35 Baylor win, which would be a fitting outcome for these two teams. But I won't be surprised if one team or the other breaks the game open, much as we saw last week in Baylor's win over Oklahoma State.
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